The decline of Florida's oranges and what it reveals about the future

The Decline of a Once-Iconic Beverage

Orange juice was once a symbol of health and vitality in the United States. In the 1950s, it was promoted as a daily essential for maintaining good health. Advertisements by the Florida Citrus Commission encouraged Americans to drink “a full big glass” of orange juice every day to ward off colds and boost vitamin C levels. At its peak, three-quarters of American households kept the drink in their refrigerators, believing it could prevent a condition called acidosis.

However, over the past two decades, the popularity of orange juice has significantly declined. Medical professionals now argue that orange juice contains as much sugar as a glass of soda, contributing to rising rates of obesity and diabetes. At the same time, climate change and a bacterial disease have severely impacted orange groves in Florida and around the world.

Today, orange juice is no longer just a beverage—it has become a symbol of modern challenges, including inflation, disease, and environmental changes.

The Impact of Climate Change and Disease

The citrus industry in Florida has faced immense difficulties due to a bacterial disease known as citrus greening, or huanglongbing. This disease, spread by an invasive insect called the Asian citrus psyllid, was first detected in Florida in 2005. Infected trees develop blotchy leaves and produce green, misshapen, and bitter fruit, often dying within a few years.

The disease has devastated Florida’s citrus industry. Over the past two decades, the state’s production has dropped by 92 percent, with two-thirds of its orange-growing acreage lost. According to the Florida Department of Citrus, the state, once a global leader in orange production, is struggling to maintain its supply.

In addition to the disease, Florida has also experienced extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts, and flooding. These events have further weakened already vulnerable groves. For example, last year’s Hurricane Milton wiped out an estimated 20 percent of the state’s orange crop.

Regulatory Changes and Industry Struggles

To help address these challenges, the Trump administration recently proposed changing the legal definition of orange juice from 10.5 percent dissolved solids (mostly sugar) to 10 percent. This adjustment reflects the declining quality of Florida oranges due to citrus greening. In the 2021–2022 season, dissolved solid levels were already hovering around 10 percent.

Marisa Zansler, director of economic and market research at the Florida Department of Citrus, said this change would benefit growers. “With the disease and environmental challenges, we are at the bottom,” she said.

Despite these efforts, the demand for orange juice continues to decline. Consumers are moving away from the beverage, and prices have risen sharply. Concentrated orange juice now costs $4.50 per 16 ounces, up from $2.70 a decade ago. Meanwhile, more Americans are skipping breakfast entirely, reducing overall consumption.

Changing Perceptions of Health

Orange juice initially gained popularity after World War II, when Florida’s orange groves produced an oversupply of fruit. Growers sought new markets, and the beverage became a staple of American breakfasts, often paired with cereal and milk. “That’s certainly how I grew up,” said Lauren Fiechtner, a pediatrician. “You had your breakfast juice right with your cereal and milk.”

However, today, many doctors and pediatricians view orange juice differently. Fiechtner noted that while no food is inherently bad, orange juice is more like a dessert than a daily necessity. “It’s more like a dessert than something you’re supposed to have every day,” she said.

Consuming juice without the fiber and protein found in whole fruits can lead to higher sugar intake. For instance, a typical eight-ounce glass of orange juice contains 24 grams of sugar. Studies show that limiting sugary beverages, including juice, can help children lose weight.

A Debate on Nutritional Value

Despite concerns about sugar content, some argue that orange juice still offers important nutritional benefits. “Our tagline is ‘the original wellness drink,’” Zansler said. “We find that for those who see the value in nutritional benefits, it outweighs concerns.”

However, the message is not resonating with all consumers. Over the past 20 years, U.S. per capita consumption of orange juice has dropped by nearly 50 percent, from six gallons per person to less than three.

The Future of Florida’s Citrus Industry

For now, Florida is working to replant orange trees, investing over $100 million in recovery efforts. Tripti Vashisth, a professor of horticultural sciences at the University of Florida, believes the industry will survive but in a different form. “We will survive, but at a smaller scale,” she said. “It’s not as easy as it was decades ago.”

The story of orange juice reflects broader shifts in American society—changes in health perceptions, the impact of climate change, and the challenges of globalized agriculture. As the industry adapts, the future of orange juice remains uncertain.